2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs: Tour Championship picks, odds, predictions from advanced model that nailed six majors

The 2019 Tour Championship is not your typical golf tournament. Justin Thomas, who now sits atop the FedEx Cup standings after last week’s victory at the BMW Championship, will begin the Tour Championship 2019 at 10-under par. Patrick Cantlay will begin the final tournament of the 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs at 8-under, while four-time major champion Brooks Koepka sits at 7-under. Patrick Reed, who finished on top of the leaderboard in the first FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019 event, will head to the first tee at 6-under, while Rory McIlroy will begin his quest to win his second FedEx Cup title at 5-under par. A total of 30 players will compete at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for a chance at the $15 million prize that goes to the winner of the 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs. The latest 2019 Tour Championship odds list Thomas as the Vegas favorite at 9-4, with Cantlay and Koepka close behind at 5-1. A number of major champions like McIlroy (9-1), Reed (16-1) and Dustin Johnson (25-1) are all threats to be in contention for the title this week as well. Before locking in your 2019 Tour Championship picks or entering a PGA DFS tournament on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, consult the projected leaderboard and predictions from the proven golf model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend. It predicted Gary Woodland’s first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn’t the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he’d hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, their advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, and anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now that the 2019 Tour Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Koepka, a four-time major winner and one of the top Vegas favorites to win it all this week, makes a strong push but falls short of winning the title.

The No. 1 player in the world fell out of the No. 1 slot in the FedEx Cup standings following the BMW Championship, where he finished 24th. The seven-time PGA Tour winner had a record season, registering the most wins on Tour while also earning eight top-10 finishes, which included landing in the top five in all four majors.

Despite his dominant season, Koepka will begin the TOUR Championship 2019 three FedEx strokes behind leader Justin Thomas. That doesn’t bode well for a player who’s never finished on top of the leaderboard at a FedEx Cup Playoff event. Plus, Koepka has had trouble finding the fairway off the tee this season. He enters the final tournament of the season ranked 96th in driving accuracy percentage (62.50), which could cause major trouble at East Lake. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in a loaded 2019 Tour Championship field.

Another surprise: Xander Schauffele, a 28-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Schauffele might not be a household name like other players competing at East Lake, but the 25-year-old has made plenty of noise this season on the PGA Tour. He finished top of the leaderboard twice already, winning the WGC-HSBC Champions and Sentry Tournament of Champions, two tournaments with highly-talented fields. He’s also racked up a total of five top-10 finishes this season, including a runner-up showing to Tiger Woods at the Masters and a third-place finish at the U.S. Open.

And while his driving accuracy has been problematic at times, Schauffele has all the tools needed to climb the 2019 Tour Championship leaderboard because he can shoot extremely low scores. In fact, he currently ranks in the top 15 in both scoring average (69.969) and shots gained: tee-to-green (1.069), which will give him a leg-up on a challenging 2019 Tour Championship field.

Also, the model says three other golfers with 2019 Tour Championship odds of 20-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the final tournament of the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Tour Championship leaderboard from the model that’s nailed six golf majors heading into the weekend, and find out.

Justin Thomas 9-4
Brooks Koepka 5-1
Patrick Cantlay 5-1
Rory McIlroy 9-1
Jon Rahm 16-1
Patrick Reed 16-1
Webb Simpson 20-1
Dustin Johnson 25-1
Xander Schauffele 28-1
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1
Justin Rose 40-1
Adam Scott 40-1
Tony Finau 45-1
Matt Kuchar 45-1
Rickie Fowler 50-1
Paul Casey 66-1
Abraham Ancer 80-1
Tommy Fleetwood 80-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Kevin Kisner 125-1
Brandt Snedeker 125-1
Marc Leishman 200-1
Louis Oosthuizen 200-1
Sungjae Im 200-1
Corey Conner 250-1
Bryson DeChambeau 250-1
Charles Howell III 250-1
Jason Kokrak 250-1
Chez Reavie 250-1 
Lucas Glover 350-1