2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs: Surprising BMW Championship picks, odds, predictions from same model that nailed six majors

The 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs roll on from Medinah Country Club on Thursday, when the BMW Championship tees off just outside of Chicago, Ill. Experienced and amateur bettors alike will lock in wagers on the star-studded 2019 BMW Championship, which brings together the top 70 eligible players to compete at a highly challenging course. Medinah hosted the Ryder Cup in 2012 and has been home to the majors five times. This year, the BMW Championship 2019 features a strong field that includes plenty of big names like Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose. Koepka, the No. 1 player in the world, and McIlroy are going off as the favorites in the latest 2019 BMW Championship odds at 8-1. Rahm (12-1), Johnson (14-1), Rose (14-1) and Justin Thomas (14-1) are also among the favorites to lift the trophy this week, so there is plenty of value to be had in the 2019 BMW Championship field. Before locking in any 2019 BMW Championship picks of your own or entering a PGA DFS contest on FanDuel or DraftKings, listen to the PGA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend. It predicted Gary Woodland’s first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn’t the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he’d hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, their advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, and anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now that the 2019 BMW Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Koepka, a four-time major winner and the top favorite to win it all this week, makes a strong push but falls short of winning the title. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in a loaded 2019 BMW Championship field.

The No. 1 player in the world enters the BMW Championship 2019 as the FedEx Cup points leader after an impressive season that saw him register the most wins on Tour. Kopeka also earned eight top-10 finishes this season and finished in the top five in all four majors. 

Despite his dominant season, Koepka has never finished on top of the leaderboard in a FedEx Cup Playoff event and has struggled mightily at the BMW Championship in recent years, finishing 19th or worse in three of his last four starts. Plus, Koepka has had trouble finding the fairway off the tee this season. In fact, he enters this week’s FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019 stop ranked 85th in driving accuracy percentage (63.04), which could cause major trouble at Medinah.

Another surprise: Tommy Fleetwood, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Fleetwood is an emerging star who divides his time between the European and PGA Tour, but has accumulated enough points to enter the second tournament of the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019. He has yet to win a tournament on the PGA Tour, but has five international victories under his belt and enjoyed plenty of success against talent-rich fields. Despite not winning on the PGA Tour, he’s proven he can play with the best golfers in the world, finishing the PGA’s regular season with six top-10 performances, including a strong second-place showing at the Open Championship in July.

Fleetwood enters the BMW Championship 2019 ranked ninth on the PGA Tour in scoring average (69.634 strokes), 16th in holes played per eagle (112) and third in sand-save percentage (64.29). Fleetwood owns an Official World Golf Ranking of No. 13 and is No. 24 in the FedEx Cup standings. He’s a long shot who could quickly climb the 2019 BMW Championship leaderboard this weekend and provide huge returns. 

Also, the model says three other golfers with odds of 16-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the second tournament of the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full 2019 BMW Championship projected leaderboard from the model that’s nailed six golf majors heading into the weekend, and find out.

Brooks Koepka 8-1
Rory McIlroy 8-1
Jon Rahm 12-1
Dustin Johnson 14-1
Justin Rose 14-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Adam Scott 20-1
Webb Simpson 20-1
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1
Patrick Reed 25-1
Paul Casey 33-1
Rickie Fowler 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1
Jordan Spieth 33-1
Tony Finau 40-1
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1
Xander Schauffele 40-1
Bryson DeChambeau 45-1
Tiger Woods 45-1
Jason Day 50-1
Matt Kuchar 50-1
Ian Poulter 50-1