FedEx Cup 2019 odds, predictions: Advanced model says fade Matt Kuchar, back Patrick Cantlay in Playoffs

The top 125 players on the PGA Tour remain in the hunt as the 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs get underway on Thursday. Three events comprise the PGA playoffs, with the Northern Trust, BMW Championship and Tour Championship all playing out between August 8 and 25. Points from the regular season standings carry into the playoffs. Only the top 75 will advance to the BMW Championship, while the top 30 will make the Tour Championship. The 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs odds feature Brooks Koepka, who has a 572-point lead on Rory McIlroy, as the favorite at 2-1. McIlroy is going off at 6-1, followed by Dustin Johnson, who is in seventh place and 1,201 points behind Koepka, at 9-1. A lot can play out over three tournaments, so there are plenty of potential value picks to be had. Before finalizing any 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs picks to win it all, be sure to see the PGA predictions from SportsLine’s golf model. 

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend. It predicted Gary Woodland’s first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn’t the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he’d hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, their advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, and anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now that the FedEx Cup 2019 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Matt Kuchar, who is going off as one of the favorites with 14-1 FedEx Cup odds and enters the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019 third in total points, doesn’t even crack the top five in the final standings. 

Kuchar piled up points early in the season with wins at the Sony Open and Mayakoba Golf Classic, as well as second-place finishes at the WGC-Dell Technologies Matchup Play and RBC Heritage. But he has just one top-10 performance in his last five tournaments, a span that included a missed cut at the Memorial and finishes outside the top 40 at the Open Championship and WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. There are far better values in this loaded field. 

Another surprise: Patrick Cantlay, who enters the 2019 FedEx Cup Playoffs ranked sixth in points, surges into the top five. He has a much better chance to win it all than his 16-1 odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Cantlay finished the regular season with eight top-10 performances, including a win at the Memorial. He also enters the playoffs brimming with confidence after firing three rounds under 70 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the last event he played in. He’s 1,157 points behind Koepka, but with each event awarding 2,000 points to the winner, Cantlay can certainly make a run. He’s ranked third on the PGA Tour in scoring average (69.171) and ninth in birdies per round (4.28), so he has all the tools needed to surge up the 2019 FedEx Cup standings and win the $15 million top prize. 

Also, the model says four other golfers with odds of 16-1 or longer will make a strong run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2019? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 Fedex Cup Playoffs projections from the model that’s nailed six golf majors heading into the weekend, and find out.

Brooks Koepka 2-1
Rory McIlroy 6-1
Dustin Johnson 9-1
Xander Schauffele 14-1
Matt Kuchar 14-1
Justin Rose 16-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Justin Thomas 20-1
Rickie Fowler 20-1
Jon Rahm 20-1
Tiger Woods 25-1
Gary Woodland 30-1
Bryson DeChambeau 30-1
Tony Finau 40-1
Webb Simpson 40-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Jason Day 50-1
Jordan Speith 60-1
Hideki Matsuyama 60-1
Francesco Molinari 60-1
Adam Scott 60-1
Shane Lowry 60-1